Keith's Commitment of Traders (COT) Trading Signals

Each week, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) releases information on large-positions in a number of commodities. Large positions are those that equal or exceed the CFTC reporting limits. Each report is issued on a Friday at 3:30 PM and contains the information for the reporting limits as they existed for the last Tuesday. Thus when the information is published, it reflects three-day old information.

The information that is published includes:
Non-commercial long, short, and spread contracts Commercial long, and short contracts Non-reportable long, and short contracts

This is valuable information because it tells us the positions held by what can be theorized as the strong hands , those traders with deep pockets and a good knowledge of the supply and demand fundamentals for each commodity. Keith has studied these reports on-and-off for years to try and find the best way to trade the information contained in the numbers. Keith s COT Signals is the result of those efforts. Instead of trying to pick the consensus at every report, his mechanical strategy just looks to find those rare opportunities where the potentially strong hands are really bullish or bearish about a commodity.

Cost:  
The price is $99 per quarter, payable through a credit card. You can quit at any time.

Managers Background:   
From Keith Fitschen:    "I've been developing technical trading systems for the futures markets for over 20 years and I've actively traded my systems during that time. My initial research was on the quantification of "curve fitting" in system development and I developed a methodology that relates the degree of over fitting to the number of trades in the development sample. With this methodology I developed Aberration in 1986.  It has stood the test of time in real-time trading.

 I have spoken at numerous technical conferences and workshops, and host seminars across the country about ten times a year.

My masters degree is in electrical engineering (stochastic estimation).  I spent 20 years in the Air Force splitting my career between worldwide flying and engineering assignments.  On the engineering side, I helped develop guidance systems for tactical air-launched weapons and acoustic tracking systems. It is this experience in noisy time-series data that has lead to my success in developing trading systems for market data. I started TradeSystem, Inc. after my military career to market commodity trading systems to the public.

Keith's Trading Corner is the result of my efforts to provide low-cost, high quality trading products to the individual trader."

Strategy and Approach: 
Keith  uses a mechanical approach to generating COT signals. The long and short entry signals are mirror images of each other and the parameters used are the same for each commodity. It is interesting to note that the number of long signals is almost exactly twice the number of short signals. Using long/short entries that are the reverse logic of each other, you'd expect an equal number of long and short trades, over a big basket of commodities. Keith reports:  "I interpret a twofold number of long trades to mean that the strong hands are primarily buyers."

Possible Competitive Advantage: The COT Trading Signals Service is unique in that it allows the investor to see and quantify where all the institutional and other large speculators are in virtually every futures market and then overlays that with a mechanical strategy that hopefully takes advantage of this data.  In addition, the investor  can be selective about which markets to work with and signals to take. 

Sign up for more information and for a limited time get a free trial of the COT Trading Signals Service.